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Post  GNG on Fri Feb 24, 2012 11:46 pm

1 Trinity 14-2 62 pts
2 Salem 12 -4 54 pts
3 North 12-4 54 pts
4Central 11-5 50 pts

The above would host 2 playoff games IF the season ended today{ but we all know next week is going to be crazy}

5 Spaulding 12-5 53 pts
6 Pinkerton 11-5 49 pts
7 Merrimack 11-5 47 pts
8 BG 10-6 45 pts

The above 8 would host a 1st round playoff game IF the season ended today.

9 Alvirne 10-6 43 pts
10 West 9-7 41 pts
11 South 9-8 40 pts
12 Memorial 7-9 31 pts Tully,Tully, Tully.
13 Winnie 6-10 27 pts
14 Exeter 5 -11 22 pts
15 Keene 4 -12 17 pts
16 Dover 4-12 17 pts
17 Londonderry 4-12 17 pts
18 Concord 3-13 13 pts
19 Timby 0-16 0 pts

Not sure on tie breakers with teams 15 -17 but I know Keene and Londonderry play next week, so that will sort itself out. Standings look alot different then they did 2 weeks ago, and I am sure they will look different by next Friday Night.


Last edited by GNG on Sun Feb 26, 2012 7:57 am; edited 1 time in total

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Post  GNG on Sat Feb 25, 2012 9:51 am

Central wins out next week and they get top 4.
Pinkerton wins out next week they bump Spaulding by a point.


Last edited by GNG on Sun Feb 26, 2012 7:58 am; edited 1 time in total

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Post  GNG on Sat Feb 25, 2012 11:12 am

FNL radio guys are clueless on the standings.

I don't think they realize the nhiaa doesn't have the up to date standings.

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Post  SeacoastDad on Tue Feb 28, 2012 2:07 pm

I did a quick (ok, not so quick) analysis of the D-1 standings and the possible outcomes this week. At the end of the analysis, I looked at the percent chance of each of the top 8 teams making it to the top 4 at the end of the week.

To keep the analysis somewhat manageable, I had to make two assumptions regarding tonight’s games: Spaulding over Timberlane, and Salem over Concord. With those assumptions, there are 512 different combinations of results in games involving the top 8 teams this week.

Here are the results of the analysis, which shows each team’s probability of making the top 4:

Trinity 100.0%
Salem 100.0%
North 78.5%
Spaulding 65.6%
Central 32.0%
Pinkerton 20.3%
Merrimack 4.7%
BG 1.2%

One note in the BG percentage above. Their 1.2% chance represents 6 of 512 possible outcomes, and they all represent a 3-way tie for fourth place with North and Central. Their head-to-head results are all 1-1, and I did not take the tiebreaker to the next level.

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Post  EBlessNHSP on Tue Feb 28, 2012 3:05 pm

I'm checking your Math SeacoastDad...I'll get back to you with the results in a week or two. Wink

Wow...nice job.

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Post  GNG on Tue Feb 28, 2012 3:50 pm

Every good forum needs a resident genius. I believe we have just found our genius. study

Way to go SD.


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Post  SeacoastDad on Tue Feb 28, 2012 4:37 pm

And here are each team’s probability broken down by top 4 seeding (ok, now I’m just showin’ off!) Very Happy Very Happy

Trinity...........1 = 84.4%.....2 = 12.5%.......3 = 3.1%........4 = 0.0%...........Total = 100.0%
Salem...........1 = 12.5%.....2 = 56.3%.......3 = 25.0%.......4 = 6.3%..........Total = 100.0%
North............1 = 3.1%.......2 = 21.9%.......3 = 40.6%.......4 = 12.9%........Total = 78.5%
Spaulding.....1 = 0.0%.......2 = 0.0%.........3 = 14.1%.......4 = 51.6%........Total = 65.6%
Central.........1 = 0.0%.......2 = 9.4%.........3 = 12.5%.......4 = 10.2%........Total = 32.0%
Pinkerton.....1 = 0.0%.......2 = 0.0%.........3 = 4.7%.........4 = 15.6%........Total = 20.3%
Merrimack....1 = 0.0%.......2 = 0.0%.........3 = 0.0%.........4 = 4.7%.........Total = 4.7%
BG..............1 = 0.0%.......2 = 0.0%.........3 = 0.0%.........4 = 1.2%.........Total = 1.2%

Other notes:
North can finish anywhere from 1st to 7th.
Spaulding has a 4.7% chance of dropping to 6th, even with a win tonight.
Central can finish anywhere from 2nd to 8th.

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Post  GNG on Tue Feb 28, 2012 5:05 pm

All that mathamatical skill, and yet you picked Salem to come in 1st and West to come in 4th in THE CONTEST. Embarassed Embarassed Embarassed Embarassed

I know there were too many variables to consider 6 games ago. Just messin with you SD. Basketball Basketball

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Post  SeacoastDad on Tue Feb 28, 2012 5:29 pm

GNG wrote:All that mathamatical skill, and yet you picked Salem to come in 1st and West to come in 4th in THE CONTEST. Embarassed Embarassed Embarassed Embarassed

I know there were too many variables to consider 6 games ago. Just messin with you SD. Basketball Basketball

Funny you should say that! My entry in the contest was purely mathematical, with one exception. I mapped out the winner of all the remaining games. I always picked the higher seeded team to win, unless the lower seeded team was playing at home and was within two games of their opponent in the standings (i.e. the home underdog). That's why I picked Salem over Trinity in that 2/17 game, and then picked them to run the table. I am 26-11 in my picks since the contest started, but that Trinity-Salem game will prove to be my downfall. Win some, lose some!

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Post  goldenbear on Tue Feb 28, 2012 11:34 pm

i was right on most of my thoughts,

West and Alvrine falling towards bottom

but I was wrong on Memorial

and I though Dover would fall apart and Concord would sneak in by beating BG


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Post  GNG on Wed Feb 29, 2012 8:45 am

School W L T Points Rating
Trinity 15 2 0 67.00 3.9412
Salem 13 4 0 58.00 3.4118
Nashua North 13 4 0 58.00 3.3750
Manchester Central 12 5 0 55.00 3.2353
Spaulding 13 5 0 57.00 3.1667
Pinkerton Academy 12 5 0 53.00 3.1176
Merrimack 12 5 0 51.00 3.0000

The above 7 teams will be hosting a first round game. Who will be the 8th team? No clue.
Alvirne 10 7 0 43.00 2.6875
Bishop Guertin 10 7 0 45.00 2.6471
Manchester West 9 8 0 41.00 2.4118
Nashua South 9 8 0 40.00 2.3529
Manchester Memorial 7 10 0 31.00 1.8235
Winnacunnet 6 11 0 27.00 1.5882
Exeter 5 12 0 22.00 1.2941
Dover 5 12 0 21.00 1.2353
Londonderry 5 12 0 21.00 1.2353
Keene 4 13 0 17.00 1.0000
Concord 3 14 0 13.00 0.7647
Timberlane Regional 0 17 0 0.00 0.0000


Last edited by GNG on Wed Feb 29, 2012 8:52 am; edited 2 times in total

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Post  GNG on Wed Feb 29, 2012 8:47 am

That is taken from nhiaa web. Doesn't have North - Alvirne game updated.

I updated game ,but not rating.

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Post  SeacoastDad on Wed Feb 29, 2012 12:14 pm

I haven't done the detailed analysis yet (including breaking any and all ties), but here is a quick snapshot of where each team could finish in the standings. REMEMBER, this includes ties, and I haven't gone through the tiebreakers yet. Maybe later today or tomorrow.

Trinity---- 1-1
Salem---- 2-4
North---- 2-4
Central---- 2-7, but not 5
Spaulding---- 4-6
Pinkerton---- 2-7
Merrimack---- 5-7
BG---- 8-9
Alvirne---- 8-11
West---- 8-11
South---- 8-11
Memorial---- 12-13
Winnacunnet---- 12-13
Exeter---- 13-16
Dover---- 14-16
Londonderry---- 14-16
Keene---- 15-17
Concord---- 17-18
Timberlane---- 19-19

For example, Trinity can only finish first, Timberlane can only finish last, South can finish anywhere from 8th to 11th, etc.

Like my previous analysis, there are 512 different combinations of outcomes on Friday night. This is calculated by taking the number of games (9) and raising 2 to that power; i.e. 2 to the 9th power = 2x2x2x2x2x2x2x2x2 = 512. If there were only 5 games, there would be 32 possible outcomes (2x2x2x2x2=32). I let excel do most of the rest of the analysis.

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Post  GNG on Wed Feb 29, 2012 12:30 pm

So the only thing we know for sure is Trinity number 1, and Timberlane number 19.

Unbelievable that you can have a team like Central finish anywhere from 2nd to 7th. That is amazing.

Crazy,crazy season, coming down to the last regular season game.

Something tells me the playoffs are going to be just as crazy.

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Post  SeacoastDad on Wed Feb 29, 2012 12:50 pm

I went through the tiebreakers for the top 7 (so far), and there is one change. Pinkerton loses tiebreakers (to Salem and North), so they can only finish as high as 4, not 2.

Trinity---- 1-1
Salem---- 2-4
North---- 2-4
Central---- 2-7, but not 5
Spaulding---- 4-6
Pinkerton---- 2-7 (Updated: 4-7)
Merrimack---- 5-7

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Post  SeacoastDad on Thu Mar 01, 2012 9:42 pm

I have now gone through all the tiebreaker scenarios and here are the teams and their final seeding possibilities. The tournament teams have been set. By my analysis, Keene loses all their tiebreakers so they have been eliminated. BG loses some tiebreakers, so they could drop to 11.

Trinity---- 1
Salem---- 2-4
North---- 2-4
Central---- 2-7, but not 5
Spaulding---- 4-6
Pinkerton---- 4-7
Merrimack---- 5-7
BG---- 8-11
Alvirne---- 8-11
West---- 8-11
South---- 8-11
Memorial---- 12-13
Winnacunnet---- 12-14
Exeter---- 13-16
Dover---- 14-16
Londonderry---- 14-16
Keene---- 17
Concord---- 18
Timberlane----19

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Post  SeacoastDad on Fri Mar 02, 2012 2:05 pm

And here is the D-2 analysis heading into the final regular season weekend:

Hanover -- 1,3,4
Pembroke -- 1,2,3,4
Portsmouth -- 1,2,3,4
Souhegan -- 1,2,3,4
Bedford -- 5
Merrimack Valley -- 6
Goffstown -- 7
Pelham -- 8,9
Lebanon -- 8,9,11
Bishop Brady -- 9,10,11,12
John Stark -- 10,11
Coe-Brown -- 11,12,13
St. Thomas -- 12,14
Hollis/Brookline -- 13,14
Kingswood -- 15,16
Oyster River -- 15,16,17
Windham -- 16,17
Con-Val -- 18
Laconia -- 19,20,21
Milford -- 19,20,21
Plymouth -- 19,20,21
Kennett -- 22
Kearsarge -- 23
Sanborn -- 24

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