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Post  SeacoastDad on Mon Nov 11, 2013 12:45 am

Just for fun (yes, this is my idea of fun Very Happy ) I took a look at the D1, D2 and D3 tournament teams by enrollment.  Here they are, with enrollment rank within their division:

Division 1 (20 teams):
1 - Pinkerton
2 - Manchester Central
3 - Nashua South
5 - Concord
6 - Exeter
8 - Londonderry
9 - Keene
10 - Spaulding
The eight D-1 tournament teams are all in the top 10 in enrollment in the state (Memorial and North are the other two in the top 10).

Division 2 (20 teams):
1 - Portsmouth
2 - Kennett
5 - Merrimack Valley
10 - Windham
12 - Sanborn
15 - Plymouth
16 - St. Thomas Aquinas
18 - Monadnock
20 - Trinity
Almost the complete opposite in D-2.

Division 3 (17 teams, 3 teams are 2 schools combined):
2 - Pelham
3 - Stevens
4 - Inter-Lakes-Moultonborough
6 - Epping-Newmarket
8 - Gilford
9 - Bow
16 - Bishop Brady
17 - Newport

Discuss.

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Post  JAF on Mon Nov 11, 2013 8:58 am


Who's 3,4,6,7,8,9 in D2? 1, 5, 7, 10 in D3?

Which of these districts have strong youth football programs that eventually feed the high school team? I'm less of a pure numbers believer especially for football. Sure it helps to have the numbers to draw from, but you need a good coach, good program, and athletes that want to play the sport. Quality and quantity make a difference. If we went by quantity, Pinkerton would win every year - it's not even close. Ironically Central's push this year was aided by an athlete than came out of D6 - without Wade where would Central finish this year?

A few years ago when Exeter went to D1 I remember the outcry that BG should have gone instead, but only because of strength of program. Although Exeter was 0-fer their first year, they've done quite well since. Now they're in a conference with all former D2 teams, but yet aren't exactly rolling over everyone. Realistically - Concord should have been in their division, Timberlane w/ Salem/Londonderry, and Merrimack or Goffstown w/ the Manchester schools, but I digress. Merrimack I believe has a good youth program, larger school, lots of athletes, but in the end if you agree with GNG coaching was their downfall... BG benefited at least a couple of years from that. Similarly when Bedford sent kids to West, it was a "choice" by parents to send their kids to BG or Trinity instead - both schools benefited (although only BG in football). Now with their own school they have 100+ students in the football program and I don't seem them listed in the top 10. But, they also have a strong feeder program in the Bedford Jaguars.

I read on NH Football Report that Portsmouth is being considered to move to D1 due to numbers. I suppose that'll mean they're in the East and Timberlane moves to a different conference and (one would hope) West drops down (or out?)... I haven't paid close attention - is the plan to integrate West into Central/Memorial still? Anyway, since you're a Portsmouth supporter - is this an impetus to looking at those numbers? I remember when Portsmouth was in D2 (my oldest was a Freshman) - the results weren't pretty, but yet they fared quite well in D3. So compared to 10 years ago - has Portsmouth's population rebounded? Is the youth program strong? What do you believe will happen if they are pushed to D1?

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Post  SeacoastDad on Mon Nov 11, 2013 10:42 pm

No specific motivation for looking at this.  Folks have seen me on here enough to know that I'm a numbers guy.  Although, someone earlier in the season (I think Roger Brown) was touting the 3-Division format because there was such parity in D-3, so I started looking into some D-3 records, but got distracted.  I was curious as to how the former D-6 teams fared against the former D-5 teams. I may get back to that before the scores are erased from the NHIAA web site.  

The rest of the D-2 and D-3 top 10 enrollments:
D2:
3 - Milford
4 - Pembroke
6 - Hollis Brookline
7 - ConVal
8 - Souhegan
9 - Kingswood

D3:
1 - Farmington-Nute (combined)
5 - Fall Mountain
7 - Somersworth
10 - Campbell

There are indeed reports out there that Portsmouth will be moving to D1 next year and West will be moving down to D2.  Portsmouth's enrollment has remained steady over the last 5 years - ranging from 1078 to 1129.  Portsmouth will be in the bottom half of D-1 next year.  Their youth program is pretty solid.

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Post  JAF on Tue Nov 12, 2013 2:02 pm


hmm... in black&white my question/comment regarding motivation could have been taken the wrong way - no harm no foul I hope :-)

As for d6 comparison - well I'm waiting on some compiles and tests to finish so I accept the challenge :-)...


Team 2013 vs. former d6 competition (vs. d5)
Epping/Newmarket 4-4 3-2 (1-2)
Farmington/Nute 1-7 1-4 (0-3)
Raymond 0-8 0-5 (0-3)
Gilford 6-2 6-1 (0-1)
InterLakes/Moultonborough 4-4 3-3 (1-1)
Winnisquam 4-4 4-2 (0-2)
Newfound 2-6 2-5 (0-1)
Franklin * 0-8 0-6 (0-2)
Campbell ** 5-3 3-0 (2-3)
Newport 6-2 5-0 (1-2)
Mascoma 5-3 3-2 (2-1)
37-51 30-30 (7-21)

* Franklin had some off season coach vs. school board issues... usually they are stronger...
** Interesting Campbell was in a Division with 3 other D5 teams while the North was all former D6 teams

East has 3 of 4 D6 teams
North has 5 of 5 D6 teams
South has 1 of 4 D6 team
West has 2 of 4 D6 teams

Playoffs: (BTW: There are those that felt Mascoma and Campbell should have made playoffs instead of Brady and IL-M. I think Campbell has a legit beef considering the strength of their schedule)

Quarters - Had 4 of each division, with 1 D6 beating 1 D5...
Semis - Have 2 of each division, both are D6 @ D5

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Post  SeacoastDad on Wed Nov 13, 2013 1:06 am

No offense taken! Good stuff. Bottom line, the former D-6 teams didn't fare very well overall against the former D-5 teams, which is what I was seeing when I looked at it mid-season.

Overall, the only difference between this year's division structure and last year's is that the state will be giving out 3 championship trophies instead of 6. 24 teams still reached the postseason (40% of the teams in D1 and D2, 47% in D3).


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Post  JAF on Wed Nov 13, 2013 12:25 pm


A D2 vs. D1 comparison with games against D3 (Alvirne & Goffstown)

Team vs. D2 vs. D1 vs. D3
Spaulding 3-2 2-1 1-0
Winnacunnet 3-2 1-2 1-0
Dover 1-4 1-2 0-1
Timberlane 0-5 0-3 1-0
Bedford 2-0 4-2 1-0
West 0-2 0-6 0-1
Merrimack 1-1 1-5 1-0
Keene 4-1 2-1 1-0
BG 4-1 1-2 1-0
18-18 12-24 7-2

The numbers here have anomalies insomuch as the divisions weren't split "equally". Exeter with 4 D2 teams? Merrimack with 4 D1 teams? The crossover for Bedford was much more difficult than the other D2 teams even though they got both West and Goffstown on their schedule. Oh and look which team didn't make the playoffs. One could argue Alvirne shouldn't have been D3 in 2012 and West shouldn't have been in D2. Goffstown was I believe the next bubble team - fortunately for them the Manchester School District AD didn't petition down...

Although it'd upset the balance of D2 - West and Goffstown should move down - one for inability to compete and the other for numbers. Don't force any one up (eg, Portsmouth)... The magic number seems to be 1200 students, although Winnacunnet seems to fall below that... So maybe 1170 becomes the magic number...

Split the remaining 18 teams into conferences of 6 by enrolment, where 1, 6, 7, 12, 13, & 18 are in one conference, 2, 5, 8, 11, 14, & 17 in another, and 3, 4, 9, 10, 15, 16 in the third. Although BG does skew the curve... Play everyone in your conference plus the similarly sized schools in crossover games for the first 2 years.

1 would play 2, 3, 4, 5
2 would play 1, 3, 4, 6
3 would play 1, 2, 5, 6
4 would play 1, 2, 7, 8
5 would play 1, 3, 7, 9
6 would play 2, 3, 8, 9
etc.

After the first 2 years one could switch to having crossover games be based on ranking average for the prior 2 years trying make games more competitive overall.

Playoffs would be top 8 teams by whatever ranking/rating system is in place...


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Post  bumper on Thu Nov 14, 2013 1:57 pm

This thread could become very busy in a few weeks after season is over. That last proposal took some time and thought seacoast dad. There seams to be a movement out there to go with 4 divisions.

Four does split better for many teams a d 2 with teams like Dover, Winni, Merrimack, Goffstown, Timberland, Portsmouth, Alvirne and a few other school with 900 students makes more sense.

If everything stays as it is now Portsmouth will be in D 1 with an enrollment of 935 next year.

Good luck to them playing schools double their size week in and week out.

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Post  SeacoastDad on Thu Jan 23, 2014 1:39 pm

bumper wrote:This thread could become very busy in a few weeks after season is over. That last proposal took some time and thought seacoast dad.  There seams to be a movement out there to go with 4 divisions.  

Four does split better for many teams a d 2 with teams like Dover, Winni, Merrimack, Goffstown, Timberland, Portsmouth,  Alvirne and a few other school with 900 students makes more sense.

If everything stays as it is now Portsmouth will be in D 1 with an enrollment of 935 next year.

Good luck to them playing schools double their size week in and week out.

The PHS AD confirmed in the paper today that Portsmouth will be in D-1 next year in a conference with Spaulding, Dover, Winnacunnet and Exeter.

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Post  JAF on Thu Jan 23, 2014 2:57 pm

So Exeter is now in a division with 3 former d2 teams and one former d3 team... a d3 team that used to be at the bottom of d2 when it was there and moved down to d3 back in 2006 (I think - based on who BG played when my oldest was a Sophomore)...

Where does Timberlane land? I assume West drops out... Goffstown fills their spot with Central, Memorial, Bedford, and Concord... Timberlane then is with Pinkerton, Londonderry, Merrimack, and Salem??

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Post  SeacoastDad on Thu Jan 23, 2014 4:17 pm

I think that's right. According to the article, the other teams Portsmouth plays are Bedford, Memorial, Goffstown, Central and Concord.

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